{"id":1906,"date":"2024-09-21T17:20:11","date_gmt":"2024-09-21T17:20:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/?p=1906"},"modified":"2024-10-07T07:47:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T07:47:11","slug":"fin-de-partie-climatique-scenarios-de-changement-catastrophique-du-climat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/fin-de-partie-climatique-scenarios-de-changement-catastrophique-du-climat\/","title":{"rendered":"Fin de partie climatique : sc\u00e9narios de changement catastrophique du climat"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1906\" class=\"elementor elementor-1906\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-efe2a87 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"efe2a87\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1bc4a09\" data-id=\"1bc4a09\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2481faa elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"2481faa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-560e033 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"560e033\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Fin de partie climatique : sc\u00e9narios de changement catastrophique du climat<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-47abcb2 elementor-icon-list--layout-inline elementor-align-center elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"47abcb2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items elementor-inline-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-file-alt\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Climatologie<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-calendar-alt\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">16.04.2024 <\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-clock\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">5 min<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e251cf elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"6e251cf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-67a30a3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"67a30a3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ff0eaee\" data-id=\"ff0eaee\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b551de3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"b551de3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"839\" height=\"518\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_595b922f4b944f4f9f2441730c332c69mv2.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1907\" alt=\"Article Image - Fin de partie climatique : sc\u00e9narios de changement catastrophique du climat\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_595b922f4b944f4f9f2441730c332c69mv2.webp 839w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_595b922f4b944f4f9f2441730c332c69mv2-300x185.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_595b922f4b944f4f9f2441730c332c69mv2-768x474.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_595b922f4b944f4f9f2441730c332c69mv2-18x12.webp 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 839px) 100vw, 839px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c286243 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c286243\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b7b8218\" data-id=\"b7b8218\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dc713eb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"dc713eb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em>Feu dans la <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/For%C3%AAt_nationale_de_Bitterroot\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-hook=\"WebLink\">for\u00eat nationale de Bitterroot<\/a> en 2000 (Montana). Cr\u00e9dit photographie : John McColgan.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ed77fbd elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ed77fbd\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6de4209\" data-id=\"6de4209\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c84bd88 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c84bd88\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-df61u38465\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Apr\u00e8s plusieurs d\u00e9cennies de recherches scientifiques, de nombreuses incertitudes entourent encore la question du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique. Si la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de ce d\u00e9r\u00e8glement et son origine anthropique ne font gu\u00e8re de doute, certaines des cons\u00e9quences qui pourraient d\u00e9couler des bouleversements en cours ne peuvent pour l\u2019instant \u00eatre pr\u00e9vues avec exactitude.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-jjqez39714\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Luke Kemp, chercheur \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 de Cambridge, et ses coll\u00e8gues s\u2019interrogent ainsi dans un <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.2108146119\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>article publi\u00e9 en novembre 2022<\/u><\/a> au sein de la revue <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America <\/em>sur la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de mieux prendre en compte la possibilit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un d\u00e9r\u00e8glement catastrophique du climat.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-clvue38582\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Il existe en effet selon les auteurs de nombreux m\u00e9canismes par lesquels le d\u00e9r\u00e8glement du climat pourrait entra\u00eener une catastrophe mondiale. Or, trop peu d&rsquo;estimations quantitatives s&rsquo;efforcent selon eux d\u2019\u00e9valuer les cons\u00e9quences que pourrait avoir un r\u00e9chauffement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 3 \u00b0C. Les sc\u00e9narios de \u00ab fin de partie \u00bb climatique m\u00e9ritent donc un examen plus attentif, tant dans le champ de la recherche scientifique que dans le domaine de la d\u00e9cision politique.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-m4awl71080\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">De tels sc\u00e9narios doivent \u00eatre pris au s\u00e9rieux pour deux raisons diff\u00e9rentes. Premi\u00e8rement, si certaines <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.banquemondiale.org\/fr\/news\/feature\/2023\/09\/19\/climate-policies-with-real-world-results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>politiques d&rsquo;att\u00e9nuation du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique<\/u><\/a> ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment mises en \u0153uvres par de nombreux Etats, une multitude de <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/reporterre.net\/Le-climatoscepticisme-reste-present-dans-la-classe-politique\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>dirigeants<\/u><\/a> et de <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/vert.eco\/articles\/a-quel-point-le-deni-climatique-est-il-repandu-dans-la-population\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>citoyens<\/u><\/a> promeuvent encore l&rsquo;inaction climatique comme seul horizon cr\u00e9dible pour l&rsquo;humanit\u00e9. Il n&rsquo;est donc pas certain que les progr\u00e8s les plus r\u00e9cents en mati\u00e8re d&rsquo;att\u00e9nuation (<a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.citepa.org\/fr\/2023_11_a06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>en eux m\u00eames insuffisants<\/u><\/a>) se poursuivent au cours des d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-gr6ab150576\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">D&rsquo;autre part, un <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.radiofrance.fr\/franceinter\/podcasts\/le-zoom-de-la-redaction\/le-zoom-de-la-redaction-du-lundi-25-septembre-2023-1545917\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>emballement du climat<\/u><\/a> ne peut \u00eatre exclu, m\u00eame dans l&rsquo;hypoth\u00e8se de niveaux d&rsquo;\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre mod\u00e9r\u00e9s au cours du XXIe si\u00e8cle. Pour un niveau de gaz \u00e9mis dans l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re, nos connaissances actuelles indiquent en effet qu\u2019il existe une possibilit\u00e9 non n\u00e9gligeable de r\u00e9chauffement nettement sup\u00e9rieur au niveau de r\u00e9chauffement moyen anticip\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-gylqm97784\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">L&rsquo;augmentation de la temp\u00e9rature moyenne du globe pour un niveau d\u2019\u00e9missions totales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre donn\u00e9 se pr\u00e9sente ainsi sous la forme d\u2019une distribution statistique dite \u00ab\u00a0\u00e0 queues grasses\u00a0\u00bb (<em>fat tails <\/em>en anglais). Une telle distribution comporte une pr\u00e9valence importante de valeurs aberrantes situ\u00e9es aux extr\u00e9mit\u00e9s, comme l&rsquo;indique le graphique ci-dessous. <\/span><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fc2d34e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"fc2d34e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1b04e46\" data-id=\"1b04e46\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2aafe65 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"2aafe65\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"798\" height=\"337\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_7d4e36ee45614cc19fc465757b82a44dmv2.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1911\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_7d4e36ee45614cc19fc465757b82a44dmv2.webp 798w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_7d4e36ee45614cc19fc465757b82a44dmv2-300x127.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_7d4e36ee45614cc19fc465757b82a44dmv2-768x324.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_7d4e36ee45614cc19fc465757b82a44dmv2-18x8.webp 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 798px) 100vw, 798px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3cef66a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3cef66a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em>Distribution \u00ab \u00e0 queues grasses \u00bb des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9chauffement pour une concentration atmosph\u00e9rique de gaz \u00e0 effets de serre (m\u00e9thane et protoxyde d&rsquo;azote inclus) de 700 parties par millions d&rsquo;\u00e9quivalent CO2, contre un peu plus de 500 depuis 2015 et moins de 300 au XVIIIe si\u00e8cle. Cr\u00e9dit image : G. Wagner et M. Weitzman, 2015, <\/em>Climate Shock<em>.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7ddf9b9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7ddf9b9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-64256ba\" data-id=\"64256ba\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-71c3b4e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"71c3b4e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div data-breakout=\"normal\"><span style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; background-color: var(--ast-global-color-5);\">S\u2019il est impossible de pr\u00e9voir avec exactitude le niveau de r\u00e9chauffement de la plan\u00e8te pour une quantit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre donn\u00e9e, c\u2019est notamment parce que les temp\u00e9ratures vers lesquels nous nous dirigeons sont sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle de l\u2019histoire humaine. Il faut par exemple remonter au <\/span><a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.fr\/environnement\/2023\/02\/au-pliocene-le-rechauffement-climatique-a-fait-monter-le-niveau-de-la-mer-de-plus-de-20-metres\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>Plioc\u00e8ne<\/u><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; background-color: var(--ast-global-color-5);\">, il y a plus de 2,6 millions d\u2019ann\u00e9es, pour retrouver des temp\u00e9ratures sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 2 \u00b0C par rapport aux valeurs pr\u00e9industrielles.<\/span><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><div data-hook=\"rcv-block18\">\u00a0<\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-m3l5x38598\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Les archives g\u00e9ologiques indiquent qu\u2019au-del\u00e0 d\u2019un certain niveau de r\u00e9chauffement, qu&rsquo;il est pour l&rsquo;instant impossible de d\u00e9terminer avec exactitude, certains points de basculement s\u2019enclencheront et entra\u00eenent une modification rapide et irr\u00e9versible de l\u2019environnement. Ainsi par exemple de l\u2019<a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.geo.fr\/environnement\/la-calotte-glaciaire-du-groenland-sapproche-dun-dangereux-point-de-basculement-selon-une-etude-214029\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>effondrement de la calotte glaciaire du Groenland<\/u><\/a>, qui provoquerait une mont\u00e9e du niveau des oc\u00e9ans de sept m\u00e8tres.<\/span><span style=\"background-color: var(--ast-global-color-5);\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-87x2938600\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Certains points de basculements sont susceptibles d\u2019affecter en retour l\u2019\u00e9tat du climat lui-m\u00eame. Le <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/fr.euronews.com\/green\/2024\/02\/15\/jusqua-47-de-la-foret-amazonienne-serait-menacee-par-le-changement-climatique-et-la-defore\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>d\u00e9p\u00e9rissement de la for\u00eat amazonienne<\/u><\/a> repr\u00e9senterait ainsi la perte d\u2019un immense puits de carbone qui contribue \u00e0 stocker chaque ann\u00e9e une quantit\u00e9 non n\u00e9gligeable du principal gaz \u00e0 effet de serre \u00e9mis dans l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re par les \u00eatres humains. De m\u00eame, le <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.fr\/environnement\/2019\/09\/fonte-du-pergelisol-comment-enrayer-le-cercle-vicieux\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>d\u00e9gel du perg\u00e9lisol<\/u><\/a> arctique conduirait \u00e0 la lib\u00e9ration d\u2019importantes quantit\u00e9s de CO2 et de m\u00e9thane stock\u00e9s dans les sols. <\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-72341e9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"72341e9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a3f0f05\" data-id=\"a3f0f05\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-466b2b2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"466b2b2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_2ccc5d11cb594d09a660d5e8f0be02b0mv2-1024x464.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1912\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_2ccc5d11cb594d09a660d5e8f0be02b0mv2-1024x464.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_2ccc5d11cb594d09a660d5e8f0be02b0mv2-300x136.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_2ccc5d11cb594d09a660d5e8f0be02b0mv2-768x348.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_2ccc5d11cb594d09a660d5e8f0be02b0mv2-18x8.webp 18w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_2ccc5d11cb594d09a660d5e8f0be02b0mv2.webp 1170w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0ee8e54 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0ee8e54\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em><span class=\"rpoEi\">Couche de perg\u00e9lisol en Alaska, r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e par l&rsquo;\u00e9rosion c\u00f4ti\u00e8re. Cr\u00e9dits photographie : Nations Unies.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-904ddae elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"904ddae\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-642013c\" data-id=\"642013c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aef2eeb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aef2eeb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div data-breakout=\"normal\"><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-8cm6k116625\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">D\u00e8s lors, un sc\u00e9nario de <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latribune.fr\/climat\/energie-environnement\/climat-a-deux-doigts-d-etre-franchis-des-points-de-basculement-pourraient-declencher-des-catastrophes-naturelles-en-cascade-984969.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>basculements en cascades<\/u><\/a> ne peut \u00eatre enti\u00e8rement exclu, puisque plusieurs points de basculement pourraient \u00eatre amen\u00e9s \u00e0 interagir, le basculement d\u2019une r\u00e9gion donn\u00e9e provoquant le basculement d\u2019autres r\u00e9gions et la lib\u00e9ration de quantit\u00e9s additionnelles de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Les chercheurs d\u00e9signent ce type de ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne par le terme de \u00ab boucles de r\u00e9troaction \u00bb.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-8ddgd117305\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Au-del\u00e0 d\u2019un certain niveau de r\u00e9chauffement, l&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e9vation de la temp\u00e9rature terrestre d\u00e9pendra donc en grande partie de la dynamique globale du syst\u00e8me terrestre, et non des seules trajectoires d\u2019\u00e9missions d&rsquo;origine anthropiques. Les efforts d\u2019att\u00e9nuation ne permettront alors plus d\u2019\u00e9viter l\u2019emballement du climat.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-emrae292244\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">En cas d&#8217;emballement, la prolif\u00e9ration des menaces li\u00e9es au d\u00e9r\u00e8glement du climat est fortement susceptible de mener \u00e0 la succession rapide des catastrophes au niveau local. Le pass\u00e9 r\u00e9cent offre un aper\u00e7u des cons\u00e9quences que pourrait avoir l&rsquo;interaction entre divers d\u00e9sastres climatiques.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-n3naq38586\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Le Pakistan a par exemple \u00e9t\u00e9 frapp\u00e9 par des <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.la-croix.com\/Monde\/vagues-chaleur-2022-avant-gout-futur-2022-08-13-1201228767\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>vagues de chaleur extr\u00eames<\/u><\/a> entre mars et mai 2022, in\u00e9dites par leur pr\u00e9cocit\u00e9, leur dur\u00e9e et leur intensit\u00e9, et dont le lien avec le d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique a \u00e9t\u00e9 scientifiquement \u00e9tabli. La barre symbolique des 50\u00b0C a notamment \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pass\u00e9e dans la ville de Jacobabad. Le pays a ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 frapp\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt 2022 par des <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/fr.euronews.com\/2022\/09\/11\/inondations-au-pakistan-un-carnage-climatique-sindigne-m-guterres\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>inondations<\/u><\/a> elles aussi exacerb\u00e9es par le d\u00e9r\u00e8glement du climat, qui ont affect\u00e9 33 millions d\u2019habitants d\u00e9j\u00e0 affaiblis par la canicule des mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-nfnas38588\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Ce type de conjonction particuli\u00e8rement destructrice, pour l\u2019instant encore assez rare, devrait devenir beaucoup plus fr\u00e9quent \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale. L&rsquo;accumulation des catastrophes dans un laps de temps restreint et leur r\u00e9p\u00e9tition au fil dans ans pourrait m\u00eame devenir la nouvelle norme dans de nombreuses r\u00e9gions en cas d\u2019emballement climatique g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-siael314754\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">Dans ces conditions, Luke Kemp et ses coll\u00e8gues soulignent qu\u2019il serait dangereux de s\u2019en tenir \u00e0 des analyses \u00e9tudiant chaque risque climatique de fa\u00e7on isol\u00e9e. Toute \u00e9valuation rigoureuse devrait au contraire consid\u00e9rer syst\u00e9matiquement la fa\u00e7on dont ces risques sont susceptibles d\u2019interagir et de s&rsquo;alimenter mutuellement.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-330fa59 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"330fa59\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4fe4678\" data-id=\"4fe4678\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-99f3f7c elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"99f3f7c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"627\" height=\"817\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_b323dbc628de4532b064c3ef16b1ffafmv2.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1913\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_b323dbc628de4532b064c3ef16b1ffafmv2.webp 627w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_b323dbc628de4532b064c3ef16b1ffafmv2-230x300.webp 230w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_b323dbc628de4532b064c3ef16b1ffafmv2-9x12.webp 9w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 627px) 100vw, 627px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3dad006 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3dad006\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em>Interaction des risques li\u00e9s au d\u00e9r\u00e8glement du climat. Cr\u00e9dit image : Luke Kemp et al., 2022, <\/em>PNAS<em>.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9b19fe1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"9b19fe1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e669a96\" data-id=\"e669a96\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-51eb285 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"51eb285\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div data-breakout=\"normal\"><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><div data-breakout=\"normal\">En fin de compte, les dommages climatiques ne doivent donc pas \u00eatre con\u00e7us comme lin\u00e9aires. Il est pour l&rsquo;instant impossible de d\u00e9terminer si des points de basculement et des boucles de r\u00e9troaction se d\u00e9clencheront aux niveaux de r\u00e9chauffement actuellement anticip\u00e9s (environ 2,7\u00b0C d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle). La totalit\u00e9 des interactions possibles entre les diff\u00e9rents risques climatique ne peut davantage \u00eatre anticip\u00e9e avec certitude.<\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\">\u00a0<\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-n146d536056\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">La possibilit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un d\u00e9r\u00e8glement catastrophique du climat demeure cependant trop importante pour \u00eatre ignor\u00e9e. Les auteurs de l&rsquo;\u00e9tude appellent ainsi les d\u00e9cideurs publics \u00e0 accorder un poids plus important aux sc\u00e9narios de basculement climatique dans leurs arbitrages.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">La gestion des risques et la prise de d\u00e9cisions en contexte d&rsquo;incertitude requi\u00e8rent en effet la prise en compte des \u00e9ventualit\u00e9s les plus extr\u00eames. Il est d&rsquo;autant plus n\u00e9cessaire de faire preuve de pr\u00e9voyance que le d\u00e9r\u00e8glement du climat pourrait compromettre de mani\u00e8re irr\u00e9versible la capacit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;humanit\u00e9 \u00e0 se remettre d&rsquo;une autre catastrophe impr\u00e9vue (pand\u00e9mie, guerre mondiale\u2026).<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-77y53113219\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">L\u2019augmentation du niveau de CO2 dans l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re se produit actuellement \u00e0 une vitesse in\u00e9dite dans l&rsquo;histoire. Les seuils de CO2 qui ont d\u00e9clench\u00e9 des <a class=\"Qwps1 _8zT4p\" href=\"https:\/\/www.20minutes.fr\/planete\/4018599-20230113-emissions-co2-cascades-extinctions-menacent-million-especes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-hook=\"WebLink\"><u>extinctions massives<\/u><\/a> aux cours des \u00e9poques pass\u00e9es pourraient \u00eatre d\u00e9pass\u00e9s d&rsquo;ici la fin du si\u00e8cle. L&rsquo;incertitude devrait donc motiver la prudence et la vigilance plut\u00f4t que la complaisance.<\/span><\/p><\/div><div data-breakout=\"normal\"><p id=\"viewer-1jcyz114909\" class=\"E0qnV MObmT Ms0q1 a144M\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"rpoEi\">En conclusion, les auteurs invitent le GIEC \u00e0 se pencher plus s\u00e9rieusement sur la question d\u2019un possible changement climatique catastrophique et sugg\u00e8rent de consacrer un rapport sp\u00e9cial \u00e0 cette question, afin de mieux \u00e9clairer les choix que les citoyens et leurs repr\u00e9sentants auront \u00e0 faire au cours des ann\u00e9es et des d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0b4e2ba elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0b4e2ba\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2357bdf\" data-id=\"2357bdf\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-507476f elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"507476f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f471770 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f471770\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Posts r\u00e9cents<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9e123c7 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"9e123c7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-135948f elementor-posts--align-left elementor-grid-3 elementor-grid-tablet-2 elementor-grid-mobile-1 elementor-posts--thumbnail-top elementor-card-shadow-yes elementor-posts__hover-gradient elementor-widget elementor-widget-posts\" data-id=\"135948f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;cards_row_gap&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:29,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;cards_columns&quot;:&quot;3&quot;,&quot;cards_columns_tablet&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;cards_columns_mobile&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;cards_row_gap_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;cards_row_gap_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"posts.cards\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-posts-container elementor-posts elementor-posts--skin-cards elementor-grid\" role=\"list\">\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-2090 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-systeme-terre category-vivant\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__card\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/dereglement-climatique-et-micro-organismes\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" ><div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"179\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_73486103a4434c91a786b2f431906c89mv2-300x179.webp\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-2085\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_73486103a4434c91a786b2f431906c89mv2-300x179.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_73486103a4434c91a786b2f431906c89mv2-768x458.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_73486103a4434c91a786b2f431906c89mv2-18x12.webp 18w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_73486103a4434c91a786b2f431906c89mv2.webp 1006w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__badge\">Syst\u00e8me Terre<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/dereglement-climatique-et-micro-organismes\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tD\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique et micro-organismes\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/dereglement-climatique-et-micro-organismes\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about D\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique et micro-organismes\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tLire le post \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\t22\/09\/2024\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-2075 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-systeme-terre category-vivant\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__card\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/vers-un-basculement-biologique-a-lechelle-du-globe\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" ><div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_fbeb56552b8244ec9007847ff65b51dbmv2-300x169.webp\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-2080\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_fbeb56552b8244ec9007847ff65b51dbmv2-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_fbeb56552b8244ec9007847ff65b51dbmv2-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_fbeb56552b8244ec9007847ff65b51dbmv2-18x10.webp 18w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_fbeb56552b8244ec9007847ff65b51dbmv2.webp 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__badge\">Syst\u00e8me Terre<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/vers-un-basculement-biologique-a-lechelle-du-globe\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tVers un basculement biologique \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9chelle du globe\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/vers-un-basculement-biologique-a-lechelle-du-globe\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Vers un basculement biologique \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9chelle du globe\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tLire le post \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\t22\/09\/2024\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-2067 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-systeme-terre category-sante category-vivant\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__card\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/une-menace-a-venir-en-provenance-du-passe\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" ><div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_66622d87eef94fa4b9d52d069e1742fbmv2-300x150.webp\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-2057\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_66622d87eef94fa4b9d52d069e1742fbmv2-300x150.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_66622d87eef94fa4b9d52d069e1742fbmv2-1024x512.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_66622d87eef94fa4b9d52d069e1742fbmv2-768x384.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_66622d87eef94fa4b9d52d069e1742fbmv2-18x9.webp 18w, https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/3ca3f4_66622d87eef94fa4b9d52d069e1742fbmv2.webp 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__badge\">Syst\u00e8me Terre<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/une-menace-a-venir-en-provenance-du-passe\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tUne menace \u00e0 venir en provenance du pass\u00e9\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chaireearth.org\/en\/une-menace-a-venir-en-provenance-du-passe\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Une menace \u00e0 venir en provenance du pass\u00e9\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tLire le post \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\t22\/09\/2024\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fin<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1907,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-systeme-terre","category-climatologie"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Syst\u00e8me Terre | Fin de partie climatique : sc\u00e9narios de changement catastrophique du climat | Syst\u00e8me Terre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s plusieurs d\u00e9cennies de recherches scientifiques, de nombreuses incertitudes entourent encore la question du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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